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WASHINGTON, DC – Full-year real GDP growth is estimated to come in at 2.2 percent in 2019, unchanged from the prior forecast but down markedly from 2018’s 3.1 percent, according to the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group’s March outlook. The expected deceleration in growth is largely attributable to the fading fiscal impact from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, as well as continued sluggishness in business investment and consumer spending. Economic growth in the first quarter of 2019 is forecasted to slow to 1.3 percent in part due to consumer caution following significant volatility in households’ financial assets in the fourth quarter. The ESR Group also noted that risks to its forecast exist primarily on the downside, including slower global growth and ongoing U.S.-China trade uncertainty, but that sustained improvement in productivity and the central bank policy response to fourth quarter volatility will play an important role in shaping the full growth picture.

The ESR Group also continues to expect home sales to stabilize in 2019, with housing demand supported by a solid labor market and strong household formation. Affordability, too, has improved by slowing house price appreciation and more attractive mortgage rates. Purchase mortgage originations are expected to expand in 2019 while refinancings contract.

“We expect headline growth in the first quarter of 2019 to fall to 1.3 percent annualized – the slowest quarterly growth in over three years,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “Growth is clearly on the decline, in line with our projection for 2.2 percent in 2019. As we weigh the downside risks to the economy – including moderating international growth and trade uncertainty – we now project that the Fed will wait until the fourth quarter to raise rates, if at all. However, some ground may have been broken on a path to improved growth, as productivity rose by 1.8 percent annually last quarter – a clear step above the well-trodden 1.0 to 1.4 percent band of the last few years.”

“We continue to expect another year of steady home sales in 2019,” Duncan continued. “While inventory has improved, it remains low by historical standards – particularly among existing homes – and threatens to derail the spring homebuying season, though a recent jump in single-family starts suggests that new supply is on the way. Considering the general inventory shortage and strong demand for housing, affordability remains a key challenge facing the industry, particularly in the conforming space.”

Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at www.fanniemae.com to read the full March 2019 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae’s business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

In these dynamic mortgage times, the lenders change the criteria Appraisers need to follow.  Many instances the closing is held up by unforeseen aspects which arise during the Appraisal Site Visit.  Most Realtors are not aware of the FHA Minimum Property Requirements ( MPR ) which are part of the FHA insured mortgages.  The FHA Minimum Property Requirements have not really changed much over the past few years, however building code regulations have.  Local Building Code Regulations takes precedence over FHA Minimum Property Requirements in terms of Hand railings and required window opening sizes which are required by local and state law.

Metro Residential Appraisers works with Realtors in Burlington, Camden Gloucester and Philadelphia counties with Listing Appraisals which helps identify some of these issues.  In future blogs, we will point out many advantages of Listing Appraisals which benefit both the Homeowner, your client and the Realtors who are listing their client's homes which are offered for sale.

Many Realtors contact Metro Residential Appraisals to help with clients who do not wish to accept your professional listing price of their home.  In the coming weeks we will be posting actual cases where Listing Appraisals reduce the DOM ( Days on Market ) and get your listings to the closing table.

All of the staff at Metro Appraisals would like to wish everyone a Happy 2015.  During the past few weeks as 2014 was winding down and we got the opportunity to spend a little extra time with friends and family.  Traveling throughout the area from Cherry Hill, Voorhees, Haddonfield, Marlton, Mt. Laurel and into Philadelphia the sights and sounds of the season was very festive.

New construction is happening all over the area including down at the Jersey Shore in Margate and Longport NJ.  Many people are getting new homes constructed as well as rehabilitating old homes for the upcoming summer season. 

We are very excited about 2015 and wish all of our friends and family all of the very best for a happy, healthy and prosperous 2015 !!